我国东南沿海台风极值风速预测与区划图构建

中国沿海是全球受台风灾害最严重的区域之一，获取台风极值风速对指导沿海土木工程结构抗风设计、防灾减灾和风险评估至关重要，中国现有抗风设计体系未单独设定台风极值风荷载。文章提出基于地理加权回归的台风模拟方法，主要包括台风路径、强度和风场参数递推模型，基于日本气象局1951～2015年历史台风最佳路径数据，开了西北太平洋地区台风局部路径和全路径随机模拟，结合台风边界层三维风场模型，预测不同工程场地的极值风速，率先完整创建我国沿海区域台风极值风速区划图并讨论台风风灾空间分布特点；面向不同建筑结构设计需求，形成台风风灾曲线和极值风速剖面数据库，为沿海建筑结构抗台风设计提供极值风荷载输入条件，推进我国结构抗风理论体系从传统良态风向台风的跨越。

Estimation and mapping of extreme wind speeds in southeast coastal region of China

The coastal region of China is one of the global areas which are the most vulnerable to typhoon hazards. It is of great importance to estimate the typhoon extreme wind speed for facilitating the wind-resistant design of civil engineering structures, prevent and mitigate the typhoon-induced hazards, and assess the typhoon-related risks in coastal regions. The typhoon extreme wind loading is not suggested independently in the current design code of China. A geographically-weighted-regression-based typhoon simulation approach is developed here in terms of the tracking, intensity and wind field parameter models. The local track and full track stochastic modeling are performed in the northwestern Pacific Ocean region, based on the best track dataset from 1951-2015 provided by the Japan Meteorological Agency. The typhoon extreme wind speeds at different sites are estimated with the help of a 3D typhoon boundary layer wind field model. The extreme wind speed in coastal region of China is firstly and comprehensively mapped before further discussing the spatial distribution characteristics of typhoon wind hazard in this region. Towards different design requirements of building structures, a dataset including the wind hazard curves and vertical profiles of extreme wind speed is archived, providing the input of extreme wind loading to facilitate the typhoon-resistant design of building structures located in the coastal region. This study enables a forward step towards the theoretical framework of wind-resistant design in China from conventional normal winds to typhoon.