我国主要流域片水利基建投资后向净效应的计算

为研究水利基建投资的经济效果,提出了关于最终需求对经济拉动作用的新概念———后向净效应和后向总效应及其计算方法,基于1999年全国九大流域片投入占用产出表,利用投入产出局部闭模型,计算了我国九大流域片水利基建投资的后向净效应和后向总效应.计算结果表明,和其它部门相比,除少数流域外,水利基建投资对经济的拉动作用非常显著,特别是水资源相对短缺的流域,例如在松辽河流域最显著,水利建筑业的后向净效应排在所有部门中的第2位;对于水资源较充沛的流域,水利基建投资的后向净效应相对较小.

Net backward effect calculation of water conservancy investment in capital construction in main river basins of China

For research of the economic benefit of water conservancy investment in capital construction(WCICC), new concepts concerning the positive effect of the final demand on economy are put forward, i.e. the net backward effect and gross backward effect, and their calculating methods are also developed. Based on 1999's input occupancy output table of nine river basins of China compiled by the water project research group of Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, CAS, the net backward effect and gross backward effect of WCICC are calculated for the nine river basins by use of the partially closed input output model, and the calculated results show that, except for a few river basins, WCICC has great effects on local economy as compared with the investments in other industries, especially in the river basins short of water resources. In the Songhua River and Liaohe River Basin, the effect of WCICC is significant, the net backward effect of the water conservancy construction industry ranking the second in all the departments; while in other river basins where water resources are abundant, the net backward effect of WCICC is relatively small.