首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
     


Modelling the transport sector fuel demand for developng economies
Authors:F Birol  N Guerer
Affiliation:

a F. Birol and N. Guerer are with the Research Division, OPEC, Obere Donaustrasse 93, 1020, Vienna, Austria.

Abstract:This paper concentrates on the transport sector of six developing countries with similar common denominators, namely Turkey, Thailand, Pakistan, Morocco, Tunisia and Malaysia. By using standard econometric techniques, we analyse the evolution of oil demand for road transport in these countries in relation to independent variables such as income, population, price of gasoline and diesel etc. Unlike the treatment in the present literature on the subject, gasoline and diesel consumption are estimated separately due to the high share of diesel in the total transport sector consumption. On the basis of the estimation over the period 1970–1990, on a country by country basis, we forecast the demand for these six countries until 2010. The results of this study indicate that the transport sector will be the driving force for energy and oil demand as part of economic growth in these developing countries. Its share in the future energy market structure is expected to grow. Consequently, the (pricing) policies of oil products in this sector have a crucial role for shaping rational economic and energy strategies within the framework of rising environmental concern.
Keywords:Modelling  Transport sector  Developing countries
本文献已被 ScienceDirect 等数据库收录!
设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号