基于FLDWAV溃坝模型的公明水库失事风险评价

充分运用大坝失事概率分析和大坝失事所造成的下游经济损失、生命损失估算基础上的风险概念,通过对由6座大坝和中间相连山丘组成的公明水库进行深入的风险分析研究,采用专家经验法定量确定了风险事件发生的概率,采用美国国家气象局（NWS）开发的FLDWAV溃坝模型进行了工程失事洪水演进分析,确定了溃坝影响范围以及失事后果。与此同时对大坝及泄洪泄水建筑物的型式、位置、大小等进行综合分析论证,提出针对性地预防灾害的发生和减少溃坝带来的损失的抑制、转移措施,优化了工程的设计质量,对提高大坝安全运行保证率有重大的意义。研究工作可为其他类似情况的水库工程风险分析研究工作提供参考借鉴。

Risk Evaluation of Gongming Reservoir Dam-break Based on FLDWAV Model

The Gongming Reservoir is composed by six dams and the connected hills among them. By using the dam failure probability analysis and the risk concept based on estimates of life and economic losses in downstream areas caused by dam failure,the risk of Gongming Reservoir were studied. The expert experiences method is used to confirm the probability of risk. The FLDWAV model developed by National Weather Service（ NWS） is employed to analyze flood progression caused by engineering project failure,so as to confirm the influencing range of dam break and the crash consequences. And the type,location,size of the dam and discharge structures were comprehensively analyzed and demonstrated. The preventing and transfer measures are proposed to prevent the occurrence of risk and to reduce the losses caused by dam failure with an aim to optimize the design quality of the project which has a great significance to ensure the safe operation of the dam. This research provides reference for similar project on the improvement of technical assistance.