砂井地基固结概率特性的近似分析方法

利用蒙特卡罗模拟方法计算砂井地基固结度概率特征值。通过正交试验研究不确定性参数变异性对砂井地基固结概率特性的影响。研究了砂井地基固结概率分析的近似方法 ,并探讨了近似方法的精度。推导了砂井地基固结度期望值和方差的计算公式。研究表明 ,砂井地基固结度的概率特性对水平固结系数的不确定性最为敏感。提出了只考虑水平固结系数不确定性的砂井地基固结概率特性的近似分析方法。误差研究进一步证明了近似方法的实用性。砂井地基固结概率设计方法用设计系数将概率设计与常规设计联系起来。

Approximate analysis method of probabilistic characteristics of consolidation of sand-drained ground

The probability characteristic values for degree of consolidation for sand-drained ground are calculated by the method of Monte C arlo simulation.The effect of coefficient of variation of uncertain parameters o n the probability characteristic of consolidation for sand-drained ground is st udied by the method of orthogonal experiment.The approximate method of pr obabil ity analysis of consolidation for sand-drained ground and its accuracy is resea rched.The formulas of expectation and variance of degree of consolidation for sa nd-drained ground are obtained.It is generalized from investigation that the d egree of consolidation of sand-drained ground is very sensitive to the uncertai nty in coefficient of horizontal consolidation.The approximate method of probab ility analysis of consolidation for sand-drained ground is brought forward,whi ch can only take into account the effect of uncertainty in coefficient of horizo ntal consolidation,whose error research further proves its practicability.The m ethod of probabilistic design for consolidation of sand-drained ground is provi ded,which connects probabilistic design to routine design with design coefficie nt.