地震砂土液化可能性的非确定性灰色预测方法

地震作用下的饱水砂土体系是一内部信息部分已知、部分未知的灰色系统，反映其液化可能性的指标值实际上是一些灰数。取平均粒径、相对密度、标准贯人击数和上覆有效压力作为评价砂土液化可能性的指标，以它们在各级烈度下液化现场资料的统计均值作为参考数列，将已知烈度区内待预测砂土的指标实测值作为被比较数列，计算它们之间的关联度。若最大关联度值所对应的参考数列烈度大于待预测区，则判为液化；反之，则判为不液化；若相等

INDETERMINATE GRAY PREDICTION METHOD OF POSSIBILITY OF SAND LIQUEFACTION DURING EARTHQUAKE

The saturated sand body subjected to earthquake is regarded as a gray system with pratially known and partially unknown information The mean diameter, relative density, standard penetration number and effective overburden pressure are selected as the indices indicating the possibility of sand liquefaction, which values are gray numbers With the statistically mean values obtained through field studies of various intensities as reference serieses, the mea-sured values of the sand to be predicted with known intensity as the compared series, the correlation degree between them can be calculated If the intensity corresonding to the maximum correlation degree is greater than that of the predicted area, the sand may liquefy; if less than, the sand will not liquefy; if both are equal, the decision can be made using the second maximum correlation degree according to the same rule