灰色残差模型在城市工业需水量预测中的运用

建立灰色残差模型是为了解决灰色模型无法达到预测精度问题，其原理依赖于灰色模型，不同之处是以残差数列建立灰色模型对该模型进行修正以满足预测精度。建立了灰色预测模型和残差预测模型，经精度检验得出灰色残差模型预测精度等级使用灰色残差模型预测出的南通市未来8年内的工业需水量具有可信度，分析比较得出结论：灰色残差模型适用性较灰色模型好，更有助于城市水资源综合规划和供水计划的制定。

Application of Residual Model of GM(1,1) in City Industrial Water Requirement Forecast

The residual model of GM （ 1,1 ） is established to solve the problem that the grey model is used not to achieve satisfactory prediction accuracy.Its principle depends on the grey model＇ s principle, They differ in using the grey model established by series of residual. Then this paper establishes the residual forecasting model of GM（ 1, ! ） and grey forecasting model. It is obtained from the precision examination that the residual model of GM（ l, l ） should be used to forecast industrial water requirement in Nantong Jiangsu Province.It comes to a conclusion that the applicability of the residual model of GM（ 1,1 ） is better than grey model through analysis and comparison.It is advantageous to forecasting the industrial water requirement and making plan for the urban integrated water re- sources and water supply.