误差椭球(圆)及井眼交碰概率分析

讨论现代井眼轨迹测量中较受关注的问题：误差椭球和井眼交碰概率分析。系统介绍如何根据井眼位置的不确定性矩阵确定误差椭球或误差椭圆；讨论井眼位于一定大小的误差椭球或误差椭圆内的概率；重点讨论现代钻井项目中经常遇到并需要解决井眼交碰概率问题，在分析Ｂｒｏｏｋ等人方法的基础上，给出一个比较完善的井眼交碰概率分析方法，该方法突出了交碰概率受名义间距、半径之和以及相对误差椭球大小的影响。

Probability analysis of error ellipsoid (ellipse) and hole intersection

The paper discusses an important problem in hole trajectory measuring-probability analysis of error ellipsoid and hole intersection,presents systematically how to determine error ellipsoid (ellipse)on the basis of uncertainty matrix of borehole position,analyses the probability of borehole situated in a certainty size error ellipsoid (ellipse).Probability problem of hole intersection often happens and need to be solved.On the basis of analysis Brook et al's method,a perfect probability analysis method of hole intersection is given.The method shows that nominal spacing,radius and the size of relative error ellipsoid will affect intersection probability.