全球重点国家和区域水电开发程度对标分析北大核心CSCD

中国水电开发程度以及发展阶段存在说法不一、概念比较模糊、数据来源和统计口径不清等问题。为了准确判断中国水电的发展阶段及在全球所处水平,基于国际较为权威的水电资源量和发展现状统计数据,系统对比了中国与其他重点国家和区域的水电开发程度。中国水电技术可开发量达到2740 TWh·a^(-1),占理论蕴藏量比例为44.3%,水电资源丰富且开发条件较好。从重点国家和区域的对比来看,中国水电技术开发程度达到48.2%,在资源量前十和装机量前十的国家中仅次于美国,高出发达国家平均水平4.6个百分点。虽然总体开发程度较高,但中国西南区域部分河流水电开发程度仅为16%,调节性能较好的抽水蓄能电站在电力装机中比例仅为1.4%,存在区域发展不平衡、抽蓄作用偏弱等问题。新形势下,中国水电应重点推进西南流域重点区域常规水电开发,并加快推进抽水蓄能电站的规模化建设。

Comparison of hydropower development degrees of key countries and regions in the world

There are some issues in the degree and stage of hydropower development in China, such as different statements, vague comparative concepts, unclear data sources and statistical caliber, etc. This paper presents a systematic comparison of the hydropower development degrees in China and other key countries and regions to judge accurately the development stage and global level of China's hydropower, based on the international authoritative statistical data of hydropower resources and development status. The technical exploitable hydropower in China reaches 2740 TWh·a-1, accounting for 44.3% of the theoretical exploitable total, indicating her abundant hydropower resources and good development conditions. From the comparison of key countries and regions, the hydropower development degree in China has reached 48.2%, only second to the United States among the top ten in terms of the resources and installed capacity of hydropower, meaning 4.6% higher than the average level of developed countries. Although this overall degree is relatively high, the degree of some rivers in Southwest China is only 16%, and the proportion of pumped-storage power stations with good regulation performance is only 1.4% of the installed power capacity. Problems exist such as unbalanced regional development and weak pumping and storage function. Under the new situation, China should focus on promoting the development of conventional hydropower in key areas of the southwest basin, and accelerate large-scale construction of pumped-storage power stations.