页岩气开发中的成本估算问题浅析

页岩气资源量丰富,随着技术进步和开采成本的降低,近年来受到人们的持续关注。对影响页岩气开发经济效益的成本因素进行分析,有助于理清成本的变动因素及变动规律,可作为页岩气开发经济评价的参考依据。本文对页岩气与常规天然气开发的异同进行分析,找出页岩气开发的特殊性并对页岩气开发成本项目进行分析,找出影响成本变化的关键动因；根据影响页岩气成本变动的关键因素及产量递减规律与学习效应,分别建立了基于产量、井数成本定额的成本估算方法和基于产量递减规律、学习效应的操作成本估算方法。前种方法以较少的参数(仅有井数、采气量、水处理量等主要参数)估算页岩气开发成本,在简化详细估算法的同时保证了估算结果的可靠性。后种方法构建的模型基于页岩气操作成本的变化规律,重点在于确定合适的学习比率。

Analysis of cost estimation in shale gas development

Shale gas, rich in resources, is paid constant attention in recent years with technological advance. Analyzing the cost factors affects development economic benefit of shale gas resources are conducive to clear the variable factors and change law of costs, and can be used as the reference bases of economic evaluation of shale gas resources. In this paper, we analyze the differences between shale gas and natural gas development in composition, origin, occurrence mode, reservoiring geological conditions, production mode, production cycle, recovery efficiency and point out specificity of shale gas, and analyze the operating cost items and find out the key cost drivers; Based on these key cost drivers and production decline law and learning effect, we develop operating cost estimation method of increasing cost quota based on production and wells number and operating cost estimation method based on production decline law and learning effect respectively. The former estimation model only includes three main parameters, the number of wells, gas production, and water processing volume, while reflect the influence of each shale gas operation cost factors. The latter estimation model base on the changing rule of shale gas operation cost and the emphasis is how to determine the appropriate rate of learning.