堤防工程风险分析理论方法综述

堤防工程是我国防洪体系的重要组成部分,其安全评价具有重要意义。主要探讨堤防失效模式、安全风险分析方法及风险分析中不确定性研究现状,并对不确定性分析主要方法,如可靠性分析、模糊综合评价、灰色系统评价和人工神经网络等方法逐一加以阐述其在国内外的应用情况及方法的优缺点及适用性。由于堤防系统复杂,风险分析模型中不确定性因素较多,通过分析比较可见,基于人工神经网络的方法较之其他方法在堤防风险分析中具有较好的应用前景。最后指出了堤防工程风险分析方面还有众多尚需解决的问题。研究成果可供堤防风险研究和风险管理提供一定参考。

Theories and Applications of Risk Analysis of LeveeEngineering: A Review

The safety assessment for levee, an essential part in flood control system, is of vital importance. In this paper, the research status of levee’s failure mode, risk analysis method and uncertainty in flood risk model is discussed. Meanwhile, the application status in China and abroad, advantages and disadvantages, as well as applicability of the uncertainty analysis methods, such as reliability analysis, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, grey system evaluation and artificial neural network, are expounded. However, due to the complexity of the levee system and the uncertainties of the risk model, the risk analysis method based on artificial intelligence has better application prospect in the levee system than other methods. Finally, problems to be solved in risk analysis of dike engineering are also pointed out.