Optimized Integration of Renewable Energy Technologies Into Jordan's Power Plant Portfolio

Jordan has experienced a significant increase of peak load and annual electricity demand within the last years due to economic development and population growth. The experienced growth rates are expected to continue during the next decades, making large investments in new power plant capacity necessary. Additionally, when gas supply from Egypt was interrupted several times and crude oil world market prices increased simultaneously, recent years have shown painfully that a power supply exclusively based on fossil fuel imports is subject to a very high risk and can have a strong negative impact on the national budget. Electricity-sector authorities are therefore looking for suitable solutions to keep up with the increasing electricity demand, to make Jordan more independent from fossil fuel imports, and to provide electricity at reasonable prices in the future. This paper presents a methodology for the optimized integration of renewable energy (RE) technologies into Jordan's existing power plant portfolio. The core of the methodology is the mixed integer linear optimization program REMix-CEM, developed at the German Aerospace Center (DLR), which optimizes capacity expansion and unit commitment of RE and conventional power generation technologies simultaneously. After describing Jordan's electricity sector and the available RE resources, the developed methodology and the results are presented. The paper shows that by the year 2022, Jordan could generate at least 47% of its electricity demand by a well-balanced mix of concentrating solar power, utility-scale photovoltaics, and onshore wind power. This scenario would maintain the security of electricity supply, absorb present growth rates of power generation costs, and make Jordan significantly more independent of fossil fuel imports.