基于Mann—Kendall检验的嘎呀河流域降水变化趋势及突变分析

基于Mann—Kendall检验方法，时嘎呀河流域降水量数据进行分析，发现年降水量总体呈现下降趋势，在研究时段内年径流量各雨量站均存在突变点，就流域而言．1985年为整个流域降水量的突变点。汛期降水量整体呈现下降趋势，非汛期降水量整体呈现上升趋势，老庙、天桥岭、汪清、仲坪和西大坡站汛期降水量变化对年降水量变化具有决定性作用。该流域汛期降水量突变点为1982年，非汛期无明显突变点。

Analysis of Precipitation Variation Trend and Abrupt Change in Gaya River Basin Based on Mann-Kendall Test

Analysis of precipitation data of Gaya River Basin for using the methods of Mann-Kendall test, the results show that the annual precipitation was in a overall decrease trend.Every rainfall station exists in a abrupt change in annual precipitation during the studied period.For the entire basin, the abrupt changes occur in 1985.As a whole,precipitation of flood season presents downward trend and precipitation of non-flood sea- son presents upward trend.Precipitation of flood season has a decisive role on annual precipitation in Laomiao rainfall station,Tianqiaoling rainfall station,Wangqing rainfall station,Zhongping rainfall station and Xidapo rainfall station.A abrupt change in precipitation of flood season occur in 1982,and precipitation of non-flood has no obvious abrupt change.