| 基于Gompertz模型的成品钢材产量预测研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 方兰,李夕兵,段玉贤,贺枫.基于Gompertz模型的成品钢材产量预测研究[J].矿业快报,2007,23(4):55-57. |
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| 作者姓名： | 方兰 李夕兵 段玉贤 贺枫 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中南大学资源与安全工程学院,410083,湖南省长沙市
2. 洛阳栾川钼业集团有限责任公司 |
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| 摘 要： | 由于成品钢材业在中国制造业内处于上下游的关键联结点，对成品钢材产量进行科学严谨的预测，为企业管理层进行重大决策提供有科学依据的建议和资料，成为中国制造业亟待解决的重要课题之一。文中提出的基于Gompertz曲线，引入季节模型建立的成品钢材产量预测数学方程，具有数据处理简化及计算量小的特点，有较强的科学性和实用性。
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| 关 键 词： | 曲线拟合 Gompertz曲线 定量预测 季节模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1009-5683(2007)04-0055-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006年12月31 |
Research on Prediction of Final Rolled Steel Output Based on Gompertz Model |
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| Fang Lan,Li Xibing,Duan Yuxian,He Feng.Research on Prediction of Final Rolled Steel Output Based on Gompertz Model[J].Express Information of Mining Industry,2007,23(4):55-57. |
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| Authors: | Fang Lan Li Xibing Duan Yuxian He Feng |
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| Affiliation: | Fang Lan1 Li Xibing1 Duan Yuxian2 He Feng2 |
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| Abstract: | The rolled steel industry is in a key connecting point in the manufacturing industry of China.So it has become one of the important tasks to be solved urgently in the manufacturing industry of China in precise and scientific prediction of rolled steel output,so as to provide suggestions and data with scientific bases for enterprise managers to make major decisions. A set of mathematics formulas based on Gompertz curve and seasonal model is put forward in this paper.The mathematics formulas for predicting the rolled steel output are characterized by simplified processing of data and easy calculation, strong scientificalness and practicability. |
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| Keywords: | Curve fitting Gompertz curve Quantitative prediction Seasonal model |
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