A corrected hybrid approach for wind speed prediction in Hexi Corridor of China |
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Authors: | Zhenhai GuoJing Zhao Wenyu ZhangJianzhou Wang |
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Affiliation: | a Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China b School of Mathematics and Statistics, Lanzhou University, Tianshui Road 222, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu Province, China c College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China |
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Abstract: | Wind energy has been well recognized as a renewable resource in electricity generation, which is environmentally friendly, socially beneficial and economically competitive. For proper and efficient evaluation of wind energy, a hybrid Seasonal Auto-Regression Integrated Moving Average and Least Square Support Vector Machine (SARIMA-LSSVM) model is significantly developed to predict the mean monthly wind speed in Hexi Corridor. The design concept of combining the Seasonal Auto-Regression Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) method with the Least Square Support Vector Machine (LSSVM) algorithm shows more powerful forecasting capacity for monthly wind speed prediction at wind parks, when compared with the single Auto-Regression Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), SARIMA, LSSVM models and the hybrid Auto-Regression Integrated Moving Average and Support Vector Machine (ARIMA-SVM) model. To verify the developed approach, the monthly data from January 2001 to December 2006 in Mazong Mountain and Jiuquan are used for model construction and model testing. The simulation and hypothesis test results show that the developed method is simple and quite efficient. |
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Keywords: | Wind speed Hybrid SARIMA-LSSVM model Hypothesis test |
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