基于最小二乘法的煤耗预测在火电调峰经济性中的应用

将某电厂300MW发电机组近一年内各个负荷率对应的煤耗数据进行筛选和预处理,并以此构建数据集,运用基于最小二乘原理的曲线拟合方法,给出机组煤耗预测模型。以机组不参与调峰和机组参与调峰两种情况下每小时实际效益差为目标函数,计算出电厂参与调峰最低补偿电价,为电厂调峰竞价决策提供参考依据。最后,分析机组煤耗及调峰负荷率对该火电厂调峰经济性的影响。

Application of Coal Consumption Prediction Based on Least-Squares Procedure in Economy Evaluation of Peak-regulating

In this paper,the coal consumption data matching each load rate of the 300MW generating unit of a power plant in the past year are screened and preprocessed,and the coal consumption prediction model of the generator unit is given by using the curve fitting method based on the least square principle.Then,the actual benefit difference per hour under two conditions of participating in peak-regulating and no participating in peak-regulating is taken as the objective function,and the minimum compensation price is calculated,which provides a reference for the decision-making of power plant peak load regulation bidding.Finally,the influence of coal consumption and peak-regulating load ratio on the economy of the power plant is analyzed.