Traffic offences: Another approach to description and prediction

The study reported examines the question of the use of drivers' official records as predictors of future behavior, with a view to setting up criteria for selecting drivers for driver-improvement courses. All the potentially dangerous traffic offences committed by drivers in the canton of Geneva, Switzerland, were noted during a three months observation period, and the driver' histories (offences committed during the preceding five years) were analysed. The statistical method used is Benzécri's factor analysis of correspondences, leading to more subtle analyses of the various factors playing a role. Results concerning the link between type of offence and characteristics of drivers, as well as modification of drivers' habits over time, are reported.