2D C/SiC复合材料的可靠性评价

采用概率论和数理统计方法, 以研究分析2D C/SiC复合材料的弯曲强度分布规律为切入点, 比较了失效概率预测值与实验值, 用可靠度、 风险函数和可靠强度评价了该材料可靠性。通过线性回归分析和拟合优度检验得到正态、 对数正态和三参数Weibull分布模型均可表征其弯曲强度分布规律; 确定了该材料弯曲强度失效概率、 可靠度函数、 风险函数和可靠强度的数学模型中的参数, 可以预测给定强度条件和许用可靠度条件下的多种可靠性指标; 材料弯曲强度均值的三种模型预测值与实测值最大相对误差仅0.07%, 计算得到的失效概率曲线与实验弯曲强度的失效分布均符合很好。 

Reliability analysis of 2D C/SiC composite

The reliability of 2D C/SiC composite was investigated by the methods of probability together with statistics, including the analysis of flexural strength, the comparison of calculated failure probabilities with experimental data and the prediction of reliabilities, hazard function and reliable strength. The linear regression analysis and the test of goodness of fit for 2D C/SiC composite indicate that the normal, logarithm normal and 3 - parameter Weibull models can well characterize the flexural strength. The parameters in the mathematical models of failure probability function, reliability function, hazard rate function and reliable strength function of this composite were developed, so that the failure probability, reliability and hazard rate can be calculated in the case of a given flexural strength, and also the reliable strength can be calculated in the case of a given allowed reliability. The maximum relative error of median strength between models prediction and experiment is 0.07%, and the calculations of failure probability compare satisfactorily to experimental results.