近50a来讨赖河流域气候变化分析

根据祁连、肃南、酒泉和金塔四站的气象资料,采用Mann-Kendall法和小波分析法研究了讨赖河流域近50 a来的气候变化特征,并用相关分析法分析了气候变化对径流量的影响。结果表明:20世纪60年代中期以前流域气温总体呈下降趋势,60年代中期后气温波动升高,80年代中期以来气温升高幅度加大;流域内年降水量近50 a来呈平、枯、丰交替状态,总体上微弱增加;11、18 a分别为山区、平原代表站气温变化的主周期;山区降水量变化的主周期为11 a,平原区降水量变化的主周期则为21 a;径流量与降水量呈正相关关系,与气温呈微弱的负相关关系。

Characteristics of Climate Change in Taolai River Basin Since Recent 50 Years

Based on the data of temperature and precipitation from the meteorological stations in Qilian,Sunan,Jiuquan and Jinta,the Mann-Kendall method and Morlet wavelet analysis were applied to analyze the tendency characteristics of climate change of recent 50 years in Taolai River basin.The results show that the genernal variance tendency of record temperature is declined before mid 1960’s,later there are a slight increasing trends in the temperature,especially since 1980’s,this trend is most obvious;while the genernal variance tendency of record precipitation is fluctuated,and keeping slight increasing trend;the main period of temperature of mountainous watershed and downstraem are respectively 11 years and 18 years respectively;there are 11 years and 21 years main period of precipitation of mountainous watershed and downstream;the precipitation and runoff is positively correlated,while the annual runoff is weak negatively related to temperature.