| 基于标准年和相空间重构的水文预报方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 丁光彬,丁佳峰,杨正瓴.基于标准年和相空间重构的水文预报方法[J].水利水电技术,2007,38(3):6-8. |
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| 作者姓名： | 丁光彬 丁佳峰 杨正瓴 |
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| 作者单位： | 河北工程大学,水电学院,河北,邯郸,056021;天津大学,自动化学院,天津,300072 |
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| 摘 要： | 文中提出了一种基于标准年和混沌分析的中长期水文预报方法。首先对最近若干年的水文时间序列进行标准年和剩余分量混沌特性分析;然后计算出时间序列与标准年差值余项的差分序列;最后利用相空间重构理论对此差分序列进行混沌预测,得到预报结果。实例计算表明此方法是可靠的。
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| 关 键 词： | 中长期水文预报 水文时间序列 混沌 相空间重构 标准年 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-0860(2007)03-0006-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 11 3 2006 12:00AM |
An improved hydrological forecast method based on standard year and phase-space reconstruction |
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| DING Guang-bin,DING Jia-feng,YANG Zheng-ling.An improved hydrological forecast method based on standard year and phase-space reconstruction[J].Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering,2007,38(3):6-8. |
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| Authors: | DING Guang-bin DING Jia-feng YANG Zheng-ling |
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| Affiliation: | 1. School of Water Conservancy and Hydroelectric Power, Hebei University of Engineering, Handan 056021, Hebei, China; 2. School of Automation, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China |
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| Abstract: | An improved chaotic prediction method focusing on the midlong term hydrological forecast is presented herein.The standard year and chaotic characters of the hydrological time series occurred in the last fifty years are analyzed and then the difference series of the remainder is computed.Finally,the phase-space reconstruction is applied to predict the difference series chaotically for obtaining the prediction result.The computation on an actual case shows that the new method is reliable. |
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| Keywords: | mid-long term hydrological forecast hydrological time series chaos phase-space reconstruction standard year |
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