| Abstract: | A method to calculate failure probabilities of critical cross sections of containment structures is developed. Uncertainties of structural as well as of material parameters are taken into account. The HDR-containment under shaker loading conditions is utilized as sample structure. This provides the possibility to verify the mechanical i.e. structural model. The failure probabilities are calculated by utilizing the response surface method (RSM) along with advanced simulation procedures. Based on these developments a computational procedure for the evaluation of structural failure probabilities due to earthquake loading is suggested. Failure is defined in terms of exceedance probabilities (first passage problem). For this purpose, a new numerical approach is introduced, which is based on suitable transformations and simulation techniques such as adaptive sampling. |
