基于改进模糊物元分析法的区域最严格水资源管理评价

在分析最严格水资源管理“三条红线”研究现状的基础上，构建评价指标体系，采用改进熵权法确定评价指标权重，建立模糊物元模型，对区域最严格水资源管理水平进行评价。以南京市高淳区为例，对其最严格水资源管理水平进行评价。结果表明，高淳区2012年最严格水资源管理处于Ⅱ级水平，预测2015年和2020年分别处于Ⅱ级和Ⅰ级水平，评价结果与《高淳区水资源管理现代化建设实施方案》相一致。对指标权重进行灵敏度分析，发现改进模糊物元分析法稳定性较好，评价结果较可信。因此，基于改进熵权的模糊物元分析法对区域最严格水资源管理评价适用性较强，是一种最严格水资源管理评价的新方法。

Assessment of strictest regional water resources management system based on improved fuzzy matter-element analysis

Based on analysis of the current research on the “Three Red Lines” of the strictest water resources management system , we built an assessment index system , used the improved entropy method to determine the weights of assessment indices , and established a fuzzy matter-element model to evaluate the strictest regional water resources management system , using the Gaochun District of Nanjing City as a case study .The assessment results show that the water resources management of the Gaochun District was at level II in the year 2012 , and will be at level II and level I in the years 2015 and 2020 , respectively , which is consistent with the Gaochun District Water Resources Management Modernization Implementation Program .Sensitivity analysis of index weights shows that the proposed model is highly stable and produces reliable assessment results .Thus, the improved entropy fuzzy matter-element analysis method is highly adaptable to the assessment of the strictest regional water resources management , and can be a new method for the assessment of the strictest water resources management .