灰色预测模型在电力负荷预测中的应用

方法的选择对电力负荷预测结果至关重要,本文通过对x（1）（1）增加干扰因素β,实现对初始值的优化,较已有研究文献使用x（1）（n）＋β方法更加便于理解,保持运算前后一致,同时,改进背景值的设置。通过实例验证,此方法可以在负荷预测上得到很好的应用,提高预测精度。

Application on Gray Forecasting Model in Power Load Forecasting

It is very important for load forecasting to choose an appropriate method,so in order to achieve optimization of the initial value,this paper uses a new method which increase the interference factor β to x（1）（1）,compared with existing literature which increase the interference factor β to x（1）（n）,this method is easier to understand and can maintain computing consistent.At the same time,we also improve the background value settings.By an example,this method can get a good application in load forecasting,which can improve forecast accuracy.