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Comparison between the bivariate Weibull probability approach and linear regression for assessment of the long-term wind energy resource using MCP
Affiliation:1. Lightwave Communication Research Group, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Johor Bahru, Malaysia;2. Department of Electronic Engineering, NED University of Engineering and Technology, Karachi, Pakistan;3. Department of Computer Engineering, Bahuddin Zakariya University, Multan, Pakistan;1. Commodities Carbon and Energy, Westpac Institutional Bank, Sydney, Australia;2. Physics Department, University of Newcastle, Callaghan, Australia;1. University of Antwerp, Department of Chemistry, Groenenborgerlaan 171, B-2020 Antwerp, Belgium;2. Karel de Grote University College, Department of Applied Engineering, Salesianenlaan 30, B-2660 Hoboken, Belgium;1. Department of Electrical & Computer Engineering, Michigan Technological University, Houghton, MI 49931, USA;2. Department of Mechanical and Materials Engineering, Queen''s University, Kingston, Ontario K7L 3N6, Canada;3. Department of Materials Science & Engineering, Michigan Technological University, Houghton, MI 49931, USA;1. Electrical Engineering Department, King Fahd University of Petroleum & Minerals, Dhahran, Saudi Arabia;2. Center for Engineering Research, Research Institute, King Fahd University of Petroleum & Minerals, KFUPM Box 767, Dhahran-31261, Saudi Arabia
Abstract:A detailed investigation of a measure–correlate–predict (MCP) approach based on the bivariate Weibull (BW) probability distribution of wind speeds at pairs of correlated sites has been conducted. Since wind speeds are typically assumed to follow Weibull distributions, this approach has a stronger theoretical basis than widely used regression MCP techniques. Building on previous work that applied the technique to artificially generated wind data, we have used long-term (11 year) wind observations at 22 pairs of correlated UK sites. Additionally, 22 artificial wind data sets were generated from ideal BW distributions modelled on the observed data at the 22 site pairs. Comparison of the fitting efficiency revealed that significantly longer data periods were required to accurately extract the BW distribution parameters from the observed data, compared to artificial wind data, due to seasonal variations. The overall performance of the BW approach was compared to standard regression MCP techniques for the prediction of the 10 year wind resource using both observed and artificially generated wind data at the 22 site pairs for multiple short-term measurement periods of 1–12 months. Prediction errors were quantified by comparing the predicted and observed values of mean wind speed, mean wind power density, Weibull shape factor and standard deviation of wind speeds at each site. Using the artificial wind data, the BW approach outperformed the regression approaches for all measurement periods. When applied to the real wind speed observations however, the performance of the BW approach was comparable to the regression approaches when using a full 12 month measurement period and generally worse than the regression approaches for shorter data periods. This suggests that real wind observations at correlated sites may differ from ideal BW distributions and hence regression approaches, which require less fitting parameters, may be more appropriate, particularly when using short measurement periods.
Keywords:Measure–correlate–predict  Wind resource assessment  Bivariate Weibull distribution
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