Probabilistic modeling and sizing of embedded flaws in ultrasonic non-destructive inspections for fatigue damage prognostics and structural integrity assessment |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Corporate Technology, Siemens Corporation, 755 College Rd. E., Princeton, NJ 08540, USA;2. Siemens Energy, Inc., 841 Old Frankstown Road, Pittsburgh, PA 15239, USA;1. Mechanical and Biomedical Engineering Department, Boise State University, Boise, Idaho, USA;2. Department of Physics, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand;1. MOE Key Laboratory of Disaster Forecast and Control in Engineering, School of Mechanics and Construction Engineering, Jinan University, Guangzhou, China;2. School of Mechanics & Construction Engineering, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China;3. School of Civil Engineering, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400044, China;1. School of Electronic Engineering and Computer Science, Queen Mary University of London, E1 4NS, London;2. Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Bath, Claverton Down, Bath BA2 7AY, UK;3. Department of Computer Science, University of Bath, Claverton Down, Bath BA2 7AY, UK;1. College of Automotive and Mechanical Engineering, Changsha University of Science and Technology, Changsha, 410114, China;2. Hunan Province University Key Laboratory of Intelligent Testing and Control Technology for Engineering Equipment, Changsha, 410114, China;3. School of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, Central South University, Changsha, 410075, China |
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| Abstract: | The paper presents a systematic method and procedure for probabilistic fatigue life prediction using non-destructive testing data under uncertainty. The procedure is developed using uncertainty quantification models for detection, sizing, fatigue model parameters and inputs. The probability of detection model is based on a classical log-linear model coupling the actual flaw size with the NDE reported size. Using probabilistic modeling and Bayes theorem, the distribution of the actual flaw size is derived for both NDE data without flaw indications and NDE data with flaw indications. Fatigue damage and structural integrity assessment are suggested based on the developed method and procedure. A turbine rotor example with realistic NDE inspection data is presented to demonstrate the overall methodology. Calculation and interpretation of the results based on risk recommendations for industrial applications are given. The influence of the NDE detection threshold to the assessment results, and error analysis of the assessment results are discussed in detail. |
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| Keywords: | Probability of detection Non-destructive evaluation Ultrasonic inspection Fatigue life prediction Bayesian Flaw sizing |
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