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An integrated catchment-coastal modelling system for real-time water quality forecasts
Affiliation:1. School of Computer Science and Technology, Harbin Institute of Technology, 92 West Dazhi Street, Nan Gang District, Harbin, 150001, Heilongjiang, China;2. Department of Computer Science, Georgia State University, 25 Park Place, Suite 753, Atlanta, GA 30303, USA;3. Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, George Mason University, 4400 University Drive, MS 1G5Fairfax, Virginia, 22030, USA;4. Department of Computer Science, University of Washington Tacoma, 1900 Commerce StreetTacoma, Washington, 98402 USA;5. Department of Computer Science, George Washington University, 800 22nd St. NW, Suite 4000, Washington DC, 20052 USA
Abstract:This paper presents a new marine water quality forecasting system for real-time and short-term predictions. The forecasting system comprises an integrated catchment-coastal model and a database management system. The integrated model is validated in an Irish catchment-coastal system using hydrodynamic and water quality data. The forecasting system was then used to provide short-term and real-time forecasts of Escherichia coli (E. coli) and Intestinal Enterococci concentrations (IE) in the near-shore coastal waters of Bray, Ireland. Two hind-cast scenarios were simulated: 5F in which predictions were based on rainfall forecasts only; and I-5F where forecasts of 5F were improved by incorporating real-time data. Results indicate that predictions of E. coli of scenario I-5F are improved. Also predicted IE concentrations by Scenario 5F were comparably higher than the I-5F predications, but due to the wide scatter of observed IE concentrations, the superiority of one scenario over the second could not be definitively determined.
Keywords:Real-time forecasts  Integrated model  Marine water quality  Three-dimensional hydrodynamics  MIKE  Catchment modelling
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