Comparing least cost scenarios for 100% renewable electricity with low emission fossil fuel scenarios in the Australian National Electricity Market |
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| Affiliation: | 1. School of Electrical Engineering and Telecommunications, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia;2. Centre for Energy and Environmental Markets, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia;3. Institute of Environmental Studies, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia;1. Institut UTINAM UMR CNRS 6213, Université de Franche-Comté, UFR Sciences et Techniques, 16 Route de Gray, 25030 Besançon Cédex, France;2. Solaronix SA, 129, rue de l''Ouriette, 1170 Aubonne, Switzerland;1. College of Mechanical Engineering, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400044, China;2. College of Economics and Management, Chongqing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Chongqing 400065, China;3. Weichai Power Co., Ltd., WeiFang 261041, China;1. University of Alaska Anchorage, Anchorage, AK, USA;2. Mechanical Engineering Dept., Ohio University, Athens, OH, USA;3. Civil Engineering Dept., University of Alaska Anchorage, Anchorage, AK, USA;4. Electrical Engineering Dept., University of Alaska Anchorage, Anchorage, AK, USA;5. Mechanical Engineering Dept., University of Alaska Anchorage, Anchorage, AK, USA;1. Department of Thermal Science and Energy Engineering, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, Anhui 230027, PR China;2. School of Materials Science and Engineering, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200072, PR China |
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| Abstract: | Policy makers face difficult choices in planning to decarbonise their electricity industries in the face of significant technology and economic uncertainties. To this end we compare the projected costs in 2030 of one medium-carbon and two low-carbon fossil fuel scenarios for the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM) against the costs of a previously published scenario for 100% renewable electricity in 2030. The three new fossil fuel scenarios, based on the least cost mix of baseload and peak load power stations in 2010, are: (i) a medium-carbon scenario utilising only gas-fired combined cycle gas turbines (CCGTs) and open cycle gas turbines (OCGTs); (ii) coal with carbon capture and storage (CCS) plus peak load OCGT; and (iii) gas-fired CCGT with CCS plus peak load OCGT. We perform sensitivity analyses of the results to future carbon prices, gas prices, and CO2 transportation and storage costs which appear likely to be high in most of Australia. We find that only under a few, and seemingly unlikely, combinations of costs can any of the fossil fuel scenarios compete economically with 100% renewable electricity in a carbon constrained world. Our findings suggest that policies pursuing very high penetrations of renewable electricity based on commercially available technology offer a cost effective and low risk way to dramatically cut emissions in the electricity sector. |
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| Keywords: | 100 percent Renewables Carbon capture and storage Low carbon scenarios |
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