Progressive mobilization of oil resources a factor in ensuring moderate price rises part 1

The first part of this paper aims to establish the regional distribution of ultimate resources of conventional oil and to assess the size of future discoveries and their share in the renewal of world oil resources. The authors use a synthesis of seven recent studies as their starting point. This analysis suggests that in the long run it will be difficult to bring about a significant and durable reduction in the importance of the Arabo-Persian Gulf on the international petroleum scene. The study also presents a tentative breakdown of ultimate oil resources in terms of production costs, proven reserves, future discoveries and additional quantities, directly arising from technical and cost progress in enhanced oil recovery methods. The authors conclude that the Middle East and planned economy countries account for nearly 60% of ultimate oil resources exploitable at a cost of less than $20/bbl and that more than half of the resources available in the rest of the world are exploitable at more than $12/bbl.