灰水足迹测度下长三角地区水质与经济发展关系

在传统测算标准下加入"磷"污染因子,对2005—2017年长三角地区各省市不同部门的灰水足迹进行计算,并用回归模型验证各省市灰水足迹与地区生产总值的关系,探寻经济与水资源协调发展的模式。不同于传统认定的总氮和化学需氧量为农业灰水足迹中最主要的污染因子,近年来磷元素成为长三角地区农业灰水足迹中的主要污染源。2005—2017年江苏省、浙江省、安徽省的灰水足迹都呈现先减少后增加再减少的趋势,上海市则持续降低。长三角地区整体水质上升,水资源利用效率有所提高。上海市水质和经济发展的关系曲线呈下降态势,江苏省和安徽省呈"倒N型",浙江省较符合"倒U型"。通过对长三角地区各省市的灰水足迹时空格局与经济发展关系分析,为以后制定差别化的区域水污染治理对策提供参考。

RELATION OF WATER QUALITY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN YANGTZE RIVER DELTA REGION UNDER GREY WATER FOOTPRINT MEASUREMENT

Phosphorus pollution factor is added to the traditional measurement to measure the grey water footprint of each domain in the provinces(cities) of Yangtze river delta region from 2005 to 2017, and regression model is used to verify the relation between grey water footprint and GDP in the provinces (cities), in an attempt to explore a coordinated developing model of economy and water resources. Unlike the traditional measurement in which gross nitrogen and COD are the major pollution factors in agricultural grey water footprint, phosphorus has become the chief pollution source of agricultural grey water footprint in Yangtze river delta region. Grey water footprint shows a decreasing-increasing-decreasing trend in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Anhui provinces from 2005 to 2017, continuously decreasing in Shanghai city. Water quality is generally improving in Yangtze river delta region along with an increased water resources use efficiency. There is a descending correlation curve of water quality and economic development in Shanghai, an upside-down N-shaped curve in Jiangsu and Anhui, and an upside-down U-shaped curve in Zhejiang. This study provides references for governments to adopt differentiated water pollution control measures through analysis of the relation of grey water footprint and economic development in Yangtze river delta region.