四川省产业结构特征分析及产业发展预测

随着工业污染源末端治理的不断推进,各种污染物末端减排空间持续收缩,产业结构调整是缓解区域环境压力的有效途径。在分析四川省三大产业结构现状的基础上,采用泰尔指数和产业结构高级化指数从四川省、五大经济区、市(州)3个视角对产业结构合理化程度及高级化水平进行了评估,并对区域工业企业主导产业变化趋势进行了统计,通过构建成分数据模型和ARIMA模型对2025年四川省三次产业占比进行预测,以期为四川省制定产业结构优化政策提供参考依据。结果表明:四川省产业结构在不断优化升级中,但区域间及区域内发展存在较大差距;除成都平原经济区电子信息相对发达外,传统能源、资源消耗密集型行业以及以农产品为原料的初级加工业在区域内仍占有较大比重;加强区域间及区域内协同发展和加强第二产业内部结构优化调整仍是四川省产业结构升级的方向。

INDUSTRIAL STRUCTURE CHARACTERISTICS AND INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT PREDICTION IN SICHUAN PROVINCE

As end treatment of industrial pollution sources advances, their end emission space continuously shrinks. Industrial structural adjustment is an effective means in mitigating regional environmental pressure. This paper, based on status of three industrial structures in Sichuan, uses Theil index and industrial structure advancing index to estimate industrial structure rationalization extent and advancing level from perspectives of Sichuan province, five economic zones and cities, statistically analyzes the changing trend of leading industries, and applies component data model and ARIMA model to predict their percentages of three industries, aiming at offering references for Sichuan to make industrial structure optimization policies. It concludes that Sichuan's industrial structure has been consistently upgrading and improving, with large gaps within or among regions. Traditional energy, resources-intensive industries and primary processing industry of agricultural products still hold a major fraction, except Chengdu plain economic zone with developed electric information. This paper presents suggestions on enhancing co-integrated development within and among regions, boosting internal structural optimization of the secondary industry for Sichuan's industrial structural upgrading.