| 人民币名义均衡汇率模型及估算 |
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| 引用本文： | 王维华,王君萍. 人民币名义均衡汇率模型及估算[J]. 西安邮电学院学报, 2006, 11(2): 55-61 |
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| 作者姓名： | 王维华 王君萍 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 西安交通大学,经济与金融学院,陕西,西安,710061
2. 西北农林科技大学,经济管理学院,陕西,杨凌,712100 |
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| 摘 要： | 按照汇率决定的资产市场方法,在短期中,为了维持汇率水平的稳定,外汇市场供求的变化主要反映在外汇储备资产的净变化上。本文在对我国外汇储备资产变动中由基本经济因素引致部分,与由外汇市场供求变化引致部分数量界定的基础上,通过实际汇率水平和外汇储备剔除趋势部分间协整关系的分析,根据误差修正模型(ECM),建立人民币市场均衡汇率估算模型,探讨非干预条件下,由外汇市场供求决定的名义均衡汇率估算问题。
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| 关 键 词： | 均衡汇率 资产市场法 ECM 估算 |
| 文章编号： | 1007-3264（2006）02-0055-07 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-06-02 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005-06-02 |
Model and measurement of nominal equilibrium exchange rate of renminbi |
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| WANG Wei-hua,WANG Jun-ping. Model and measurement of nominal equilibrium exchange rate of renminbi[J]. Journal of Xi'an Institute of Posts and Telecommunications, 2006, 11(2): 55-61 |
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| Authors: | WANG Wei-hua WANG Jun-ping |
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| Abstract: | According to asset and market approach to exchange rate,in short run,in order to maintain stability of exchange rate,the fluctuation of demand and supply mainly responds to net variation of foreign exchange reserves.This paper distinguishs quantitatively the parts attributed to basic economic factors and other parts attributed to demand and supply of foreign exchange in the variation of China's foreign exchange reserves.Then it analyzes the cointegration between real exchange rate and no-trend parts of foreign exchange reserves,and through ECM to establish the measurement model of nominal equilibrium and market exchange rate of Renminbi without intervention. |
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| Keywords: | ECM |
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