暴雨强度公式对比分析及参数优化求解

暴雨强度公式是计算城市防洪、除涝或排水工程设计暴雨量的重要依据,其选择的合理性直接影响到城市防洪排涝系统的规模和效益。以自贡气象站为例,通过对比分析我国水利行业和市政行业暴雨强度公式计算过程的差异,用对数离差绝对值和最小准则进行暴雨强度公式参数优化并求解,研究了水利行业和市政行业2种暴雨强度公式对计算成果的影响。结果表明:①SCE-UA算法能够有效地解决复杂超定非线性的暴雨强度公式参数求解问题;②市政行业暴雨强度公式拟合效果比水利行业拟合效果更优。计算成果可指导各地区水利工程或市政工程选择合适的暴雨强度公式,对建立完善的城市排水防涝系统和减少雨洪灾害对城市影响具有重要的意义。

Comparative Analysis and Parameters Optimization ofRainstorm Intensity Formulae

Rainstorm intensity formula is an important basis for calculating the rainstorm in urban flood control and drainage or waterlogging system. Selecting an appropriate formula directly affects the scale and efficiency of urban flood control and drainage system. In this paper we compared the rainstorm intensity formulae of water conservancy industry and municipal industry in China, and investigated the influence of the two formulae on calculation result by parameter optimization in accordance with criterion. Results indicate that (1) The SCE-UA algorithm can effectively solve the problem of the complex nonlinear rainstorm intensity formula. (2) The fitting effect of the rainstorm intensity formula of municipal industry is better than that of water conservancy industry. The research result would be of great significance for an improved drainage and waterlogging system and reducing rain flood disaster.