黄金价格的影响因素分析

自20世纪70年代以来,黄金非货币化使得黄金价格较少受到政府的控制,黄金市场投机活动频繁,造成黄金价格剧烈波动。先从理论上对影响黄金价格的因素作定性分析;然后利用1990年1月到2009年4月的月度数据,采用协整理论和误差修正模型对影响黄金价格的长、短期因素进行了定量分析。结果表明,美元汇率、美国通货膨胀率、石油价格和道琼斯工业指数等4个因素,无论是在短期还是长期内都影响着黄金的价格;而美国联邦基金利率只在长期内对黄金价格有影响,在短期内影响甚微。另外国际政治环境,重大的政治、战争事件都将影响黄金价格。

Analysis on Factors of Affecting Gold Price

Since 1970s, non-currency of gold makes the price of gold rarely controlled by the government, and frequent speculation in the gold market causes the gold price volatility. Firstly makes theoretically qualitative analysis on the factors affecting the price of gold, then on the basis of monthly data from January 1990 to April 2009, cointegration theory and error correction model are applied to analyze quantitatively the long-term and short-term factors. The results show that four factors including US dollar exchange rate, U.S. inflation rates, oil prices and the Dow Jones industrial average all affect the gold price volatility in the short or long term, while the U.S. federal funds rate only impacts gold price in the long term and negligible in short term. In addition, the international political environment, significant political and war events will affect the price of gold.