计及动态氢价和不确定性的区域综合能源系统规划-运行两阶段优化

综合能源系统对提高能源利用率、推进能源转型和节能减排具有重要意义。随着可再生能源大规模接入和电、氢、热等能源需求多样化，综合能源系统面临供需侧的多重不确定性。因此，提出一种计及动态氢价和不确定性的区域综合能源系统规划-运行两阶段优化方法。首先，提出了一种具有实际物理意义的非线性动态氢定价机制，实现售氢价随可再生能源占比动态变化，以促进可再生能源发电制氢。随后，将该机制引入规划-运行两阶段协同优化过程中，通过配置合理的设备容量和制定经济的运行计划，最小化系统建设及运行成本。同时，基于模糊机会约束规划方法描述可再生能源出力及负荷需求的不确定性，以增强系统稳健性。最后，通过算例仿真验证所提优化模型及方法的有效性。

Two-stage optimization of regional integrated energy system planning-operation with dynamic hydrogen pricing and uncertainties

An integrated energy system is of importance in improving energy efficiency, promoting energy transformation and emission reduction. With the large-scale access of renewable energy and the diversification of energy demands such as electricity, hydrogen, and heat, the integrated energy system is facing multiple uncertainties on both the supply and demand sides. This paper proposes a two-stage optimization method for regional integrated energy system planning and operation with dynamic hydrogen pricing and uncertainties. First, a nonlinear dynamic hydrogen pricing mechanism with practical physical significance is proposed to realize the dynamic change of hydrogen price with the proportion of renewable energy to promote hydrogen production from renewable energy. Then, this mechanism is introduced into the two-stage coordinated optimization of planning and operation process to minimize system construction and operational costs by allocating reasonable equipment capacity and making an economic operation plan. The uncertainty of renewable energy output and load demand is described based on fuzzy chance constrained programming to enhance the robustness of the system. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed optimization model and method is verified by simulation. This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 52107199).