南海莺琼盆地地层压力预测技术现状及展望

莺琼盆地是世界海上三大含油气超压盆地之一。盆地内超压分布十分广泛，超压成因复杂多样，目前钻遇最高压力系数达2.36。钻井实践表明，地层压力异常严重影响了作业安全和时效，是长期制约盆地内高温高压及深水领域天然气勘探开发进程的关键因素。该文通过详细回顾地层压力预测技术发展脉络，系统梳理了中海油莺琼盆地地层压力预测技术面临的挑战，总结了制约地层压力预测技术精度的关键因素。在此基础上，面向未来勘探及钻井作业安全需求，指明了后续盆地内地层压力预测技术发展趋势及重点攻关方向，为海上低勘探地区的压力预测研究提供了重要参考。

The Status Quo and Prospects for Pore Pressure Prediction Technology in Yingqiong Basin of South China Sea

Yingqiong Basin is one of the three largest overpressure basins with rich oil and gas resources potential in the world. The overpressure mechanism is very complicated in the basin, and the distribution of overpressure is very extensive. The highest pressure coefficient in drilled wells is as high as 2.36. It is indicated by the previous drilling operations that the abnormal formation pressure has been seriously affecting the safety and efficiency of drilling and completion operation, and has always been a key factor that restricts natural gas exploration and development with high temperature and high pressure and deep water. Firstly, the development of formation pressure prediction technology has been reviewed in detail in the paper. Secondly, challenges of formation pressure prediction technology in Yingqiong Basin are summarized, and the key factors restricting the accuracy of formation pressure prediction technology are also revealed. In view of the safety requirements of the future exploration and drilling operation, the development trend and key research direction of formation pressure prediction technology in the basin have been pointed out finally, which can provide an important reference for the pressure prediction in offshore low-degree exploration areas.