| 电力系统风险评估方法和应用实例研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 周家启,赵霞.电力系统风险评估方法和应用实例研究[J].中国电力,2006,39(8):77-81. |
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| 作者姓名： | 周家启 赵霞 |
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| 作者单位： | 重庆大学,电气工程学院,高电压与电工新技术教育部重点实验室,重庆,400044 |
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| 摘 要： | 介绍一种新的可用于电力系统规划、设计、运行及维护领域风险评估的方法。该方法强调工程应用,探讨电力系统的实际问题。根据规划、运行、维修和资产管理方面的不同要求,发展特定的概念、针对性的方法和实施步骤,如提出元件老化失效模型、共因停运的分离模型及元件组停运模型等新概念。通过对加拿大某城市电力系统扩建规划实例的分析,说明如何进行具体工程的可靠性概率评估,以达到资源的最佳配置,使系统风险保持在目标水平。
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| 关 键 词： | 电力系统 可靠性 风险评估 概率分析 |
| 文章编号： | 1004-9649(2006)08-0077-05 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-05-31 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006年5月31日 |
Models and methods applied to risk assessment of power systems |
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| ZHOU Jia-qi,ZHAO Xia.Models and methods applied to risk assessment of power systems[J].Electric Power,2006,39(8):77-81. |
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| Authors: | ZHOU Jia-qi ZHAO Xia |
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| Affiliation: | Key Laboratory of High Voltage Engineering and Electrical New Technology of Ministry of Education, Eletric Engineering College of Chongqing University, Chongqing 400044, China |
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| Abstract: | A new approach to evaluate power system risk in planning,design,operation and maintenance was introduced in this paper.Considering engineering applications,some new concepts and solutions were proposed in this approach,such as aging failure model,individual models for common cause outages,models for a component-group outage,etc.Following a thorough discussion of modeling and methodology with a real-life example about the power system planning of a Canadian city,it could be shown how to keep risk at targeted levels. |
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| Keywords: | power system reliability risk assessment probabilistic analysis |
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