| 区域流量历时曲线构建及其不确定性分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 黄国如,姚锡良. 区域流量历时曲线构建及其不确定性分析[J]. 水力发电学报, 2011, 30(4) |
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| 作者姓名： | 黄国如 姚锡良 |
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| 作者单位： | 华南理工大学土木与交通学院,广州,510640 |
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| 基金项目： | 水利部公益性行业科研专项经费资助项目(200801033); 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(2009ZM0051,2009ZM0044) |
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| 摘 要： | 根据流量值与流域空间特征的相关关系来构建区域流量历时曲线,对由东江流域中的13个子流域所组成的区域研究发现,各个指定相对历时下的流量值与流域面积和坡度的幂函数相关关系较好。运用Jack-knife检验方法验证所得到的区域流量历时曲线模拟结果,有9个站的确定性系数达0.95以上,尤其在非洪水和非枯水部分拟合精度较高。利用Bootstrap重抽样方法对所得到的区域流量历时曲线进行不确定性分析,发现其不确定性范围较小,且大多数区间对实测值和由系数均值得到的合成流量历时曲线包含得较好。表明采用本文所建议的方法可以得到精度良好的区域流量历时曲线,并可将其推广到广大的无实测流量资料地区。
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| 关 键 词： | 区域流量历时曲线 不确定性分析 自举重抽样法 无资料地区 |
Generation and uncertainty analysis of regional flow duration curves |
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| HUANG Guoru,YAO Xiliang. Generation and uncertainty analysis of regional flow duration curves[J]. Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering, 2011, 30(4) |
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| Authors: | HUANG Guoru YAO Xiliang |
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| Affiliation: | HUANG Guoru,YAO Xiliang(School of Civil Engineering and Transportation,South China University of Technology,Guangzhou 510640,China) |
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| Abstract: | Regional flow duration curves(FDC) are generated by using direct correlation of discharge with catchment characteristics,and the results of Dongjiang watershed of 13 sub-basins show a good power function relationship of flow rate versus drainage area and watershed slope.Jack-knife testing method is used to verify the accuracy of these curves,and the calculated deterministic coefficients at 9 stations among the tested 13 stations are greater than 0.95,with particularly excellent fitting accuracy of the non-f... |
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| Keywords: | regional flow duration curves uncertainty analysis bootstrap resampling technique ungauged region |
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