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| 基于三角模糊数的水库防洪调度模糊综合风险分析 | |
| 引用本文： | 吴成国,王义民,金菊良,王宗志,黄强. 基于三角模糊数的水库防洪调度模糊综合风险分析[J]. 水力发电学报, 2011, 30(4) |
| 作者姓名： | 吴成国 王义民 金菊良 王宗志 黄强 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 西安理工大学西北水资源与环境生态教育部重点实验室,西安,710048 2. 合肥工业大学土木与水利工程学院,合肥,230009 3. 南京水利科学研究院水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,南京,210029 |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(70771035,50909063); “十一五”国家科技支撑计划重点项目(2006BAB14B02); 中国气象局成都高原气象实验室基金项目(LPM2008018) |
| 摘 要： | 水库防洪调度是优化区域水资源配置进而实现社会经济可持续发展的一项重要研究内容,防洪调度风险分析可为评判水文预报方案精度、合理选择动态汛限水位进而制定水库防洪调度规则提供科学的决策依据。为全面合理地识别和估计调度过程中的各种风险因子,将三角模糊数理论引入水库防洪调度风险分析研究领域,首先利用α-截集技术将水库防洪调度风险识别指标模糊化,即将风险识别指标由传统的确定值转化成与不同置信度水平α相对应的区间数,由此计算相应的模糊风险率区间值,进而提出了基于三角模糊数的水库防洪调度模糊综合风险分析模型。潘家口水库主汛期不同汛限水位调整方案的水库防洪调度模糊综合风险评价的应用结果表明：该水库主汛期汛限水位调整方案上限值为218.50 m;该风险分析方法物理意义明确、结果客观合理,可见在洪水资源安全利用系统风险分析中具有一定的推广应用价值。 |
| 关 键 词： | 水库防洪调度 风险分析 三角模糊数 α-截集 模糊风险率 随机模拟 |
Comprehensive risk analysis based on triangular fuzzy number for reservoir flood control operation |
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| WU Chengguo,WANG Yimin,JIN Juliang,WANG Zongzhi,HUANG Qiang. Comprehensive risk analysis based on triangular fuzzy number for reservoir flood control operation[J]. Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering, 2011, 30(4) | |
| Authors: | WU Chengguo WANG Yimin JIN Juliang WANG Zongzhi HUANG Qiang |
| Affiliation: | WU Chengguo1,WANG Yimin1,JIN Juliang2,WANG Zongzhi3,HUANG Qiang1(1.Key Lab of Northwest Water Resources and Environment Ecology of MOE,Xi'an University of Technology,Xi'an 710048,China,2.College of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering,Hefei University of Technology,Hefei 230009,3.State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering,Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing 210029,China) |
| Abstract: | Reservoir flood control operation is an important issue for optimizing regional water resources allocation and realizing sustainable development of social economy,and risk analysis of the operation provides a decision-making basis for the evaluation of hydrological forecast accuracy and the determination of dynamic limited water level and operation rules.To fully identify and better estimate various risk factors of the operation,a triangular fuzzy number technique was introduced into the risk analysis and a... |
| Keywords: | reservoir flood control operation risk analysis triangular fuzzy number α-cut set fuzzy risk rate stochastic simulation |
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