基于经济分析的变压器更换研究

为了提高变压器运行的经济性,笔者提出一种确定在役变压器最经济的更换时间方法,即利用蒙特卡罗（MonteCarlo）仿真技术,建立变压器无故障工作时间和维修时间模型,确定变压器停运时间的概率分布,并依据运行费用、维护费用和停电损失费用计算在役变压器和新变压器的年均费用,最终确定更换在役变压器最经济的更换时间.算例分析结果表明,该方法应用简单、直观、可行.同时,对确定在役运行变压器经济的更换时间具有参考价值.

Research on transformer replacement based on economic analysis

In order to enhance the economy of transformer operation, the author proposes the most economic method to determine the replacement time for in-service transformer, a method which establishes the model of working time without faults and maintenance time of transformer with the Monte Carlo simulation technology, by which determines the probability distribution of outage time of transformer so as to determine the most economic time for replacement of in-service transformer on the basis of annual cost of in-service and new transformer calculated on the accordance to the cost of operation, maintenance and outage loss. The calculation example shows that the method, which is simple, intuitive and feasible, provides reference for the determination of the most economic time for replacement of in-service transformer.