中国区域CO2排放收敛的空间计量分析

中国区域CO₂排放的增长趋势是学术界关注的焦点，本文精确测算了我国30个省份1997-2007年的CO₂排放量，并在此基础上，采用空间经济计量方法，研究我国区域CO₂排放量的β收敛情况。通过对11年数据分时段进行研究，结果表明，1997-2007年间，我国区域CO₂排放不存在绝对收敛，但是控制经济增长速度和保持能源消费结构之后，存在着条件收敛，收敛速度为1.04%。分时段来看：1997-2002年间，我国区域间CO₂排放存在着显著的空间相关性，区域CO₂排放存在绝对收敛和条件收敛，收敛速度分别为2.49%和1.74%；2002-2007年间，我国区域CO₂排放不存在空间相关性，也不存在绝对收敛和条件收敛。此外，经济增长速度和煤炭消费比重影响CO₂排放量，保持经济持续稳定增长，优化能源消费结构，是控制我国CO₂排放的有效途径。

SPATIAL QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS ON CHINA' S REGIONALCARBON DIOXIDE EMISSION CONVERGENCE

A rise in China’s regional carbon dioxide emission becomes a focus. This paper calculates the quantities of carbon dioxide emission in 30 provinces from 1997 to 2007, and applies a spatial economic measure to study the β convergence of China’s regional carbon dioxide emission. Revealed by the 11-year’s data, there is no absolute convergence, but conditional converse at a speed of 1.04% after controlling economic growing speed and remaining energy consuming structures. Temporally, a notable spatial relativity happened during 1997 to 2002, and absolute and conditional convergence also existed at a speed of 2.49% and 1.74%, respectively. During 2002 to 2007, there is no spatial relativity and no absolute and conditional convergence. Furthermore, economic growth speed and coal consumption ratio have an impact on carbon dioxide emission. It is a workable means to keep a stable economic growth and to optimize the energy consumption structures.