基于不确定度评定的交通事故车速估计方法

为了提高交通事故速度鉴定结果的准确性，引入对事故再现模型参数进行不确定度评定的方法。结合两辆大型半挂车追尾碰撞事故的现场勘查数据，提出相应的能量守恒车速表达式，得到两车碰撞前初速度。然后，通过选择适当参数作不确定因子并考虑不确定度的累积和传播，由此获得碰撞前初速度的置信区间。研究结果表明：运用不确定度对事故参数进行评定可以使速度再现结果存在一定的变动范围，符合实际需要，有助于增强鉴定结果的可靠性。

Evaluation method of traffic accident velocity based on uncertainty

To enhance the accuracy of traffic accident velocity appraisal, the method on adopting uncertainty to evaluate traffic parameters in accident reconstruction model was employed. By combining with the site survey data of rear-end collision accident, its vehicle velocity expression based on energy conservation was put forward and the initial speed of two vehicles before collision were calculated. And on the basis of these, the confidence interval of initial speed before collision was obtained by choosing uncertainty factors and taking the accumulation and spread of uncertainty into consideration. The result shows that the evaluation method using uncertainty can provide the range of variation for velocity, which conforms to reality demand and helps improve the reliability of appraisal.