| 基于短期定量降水预报的隔河岩洪水预报研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 李超群,郭生练,张洪刚.基于短期定量降水预报的隔河岩洪水预报研究[J].水电能源科学,2006,24(4):31-34. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李超群 郭生练 张洪刚 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 武汉大学,水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,湖北,武汉,430072
2. 长江水利委员会水文局,湖北,武汉,430010 |
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| 摘 要： | 统计分析了清江流域短期定量降水预报不同降水等级下的确率、漏报率和空报率,应用最近邻抽样回归模型对逐日降水预报资料行时段分配,将得到的逐时段降水预报资料与所建清江隔河岩水库洪水预报方案相耦合,发布考虑预见期降水的洪水预报。结果表明,考虑预见期降水可显著提高隔河岩水库的洪水预报精度。
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| 关 键 词： | 定量降水预报 洪水预报 时段分配系数 最近邻抽样回归模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-7709（2006）04-0031-04 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-02-16 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006年2月16日 |
Application of Short-term Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts in Flood Forecasting in Geheyan Reservoir Basin |
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| LI Chaoqun,GUO Shenglian,ZHANG Honggang.Application of Short-term Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts in Flood Forecasting in Geheyan Reservoir Basin[J].International Journal Hydroelectric Energy,2006,24(4):31-34. |
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| Authors: | LI Chaoqun GUO Shenglian ZHANG Honggang |
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| Abstract: | The success hit rate, the point over rate and the false alarm rateof short-term quantitative precipitation forecasting in the Geheyan reservoir basin was calculated and analyzed. A nearest neighbor bootstrapping regressive (NNBR)modelwas adopted to estimate the temporal disaggregatingcoefficients of the precipitation forecasts, and the calculated temporal disaggregated precipitationwas coupled with the proposedflood forecasting model. It was shownthat the proposed flood forecasting model coupled with the quantitative precipitation forecasts can increase the flood forecasting precisionfor Geheyan reservoir basin. |
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| Keywords: | quantitative precipitation forecasting flood forecasting temporal disaggregating coefficients nearest neighbor bootstrapping regressive |
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