| 大型水利水电工程施工进度风险分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 张晓峰,朱琳,谭学奇,王仁超. 大型水利水电工程施工进度风险分析[J]. 水利水电技术, 2005, 36(4): 82-84 |
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| 作者姓名： | 张晓峰 朱琳 谭学奇 王仁超 |
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| 作者单位： | 天津大学,建筑工程学院,天津,300072;黄河上游水电开发有限责任公司,青海,西宁,810000;中水北方勘测设计研究有限责任公司,天津,300222;天津大学,建筑工程学院,天津,300072 |
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| 摘 要： | 水利水电工程施工过程具有诸多不确定性，项目完工风险分析要考虑各资源分配和工序间的制约与搭接．运用故障树风险分析方法对影响工程施工进度的各种因素风险进行全面评价，将网络计划PERT计算机仿真技术和工程多因素风险结合起来。建立了PERT风险网络仿真模型。编制了PERT网络计划软件，并采用工程实例进行了验证．
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| 关 键 词： | 水利水电工程施工 故障树 风险分析 PERT 网络计划 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-0860(2005)04-0082-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005-01-12 |
Risk analysis on construction of large water conservancy and hydropower project |
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| ZHANG Xiao-feng,ZHU Lin,TAN Xue-qi,WANG Ren-chao. Risk analysis on construction of large water conservancy and hydropower project[J]. Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering, 2005, 36(4): 82-84 |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Xiao-feng ZHU Lin TAN Xue-qi WANG Ren-chao |
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| Affiliation: | ZHANG Xiao-feng~ |
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| Abstract: | The construction processes of the water conservancy and hydropower projects have much uncertainties. So far as the risk analysis on the completion of the project is concerned, the reasonable arrangements of both the construction processes and all the resources for the construction have to be considered. The method of Fault Tree Analysis is introduced herein to make an overall evaluation on various risk factors in the construction process; in which the computer simulation of PERT network model is established with the development of PERT network planning program by considering all the risk factors, and then the method is examined with the actual case of project concerned. |
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| Keywords: | constructicn of water conservancy and hydropower project fault tree risk analysis PERT network planning |
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