基于ESDA-GWR的国土开发强度空间特征及影响因素与机理研究——以河北省为例

有效控制国土空间开发强度是推动资源节约集约利用、有效保护生态环境的重要保障。本文以河北省148个县域空间为研究单元,运用探索性空间数据分析ESDA和GIS的空间表达方法,结合OLS模型和地理加权回归模型对国土开发强度的影响因素进行分析,并探讨影响机理,得出结论如下:1)在县域层面存在显著为正的空间自相关,呈现趋同趋势,LISA局部自相关结果表明全省国土开发强度有着明显的"点—带—片"状结构特征; 2)人均GDP、人口密度、地均财政支出、金融机构本外币各项贷款余额和坡度系数对国土开发强度有正向影响,而地均固定资产投资、地均规模以上工业总产值、永久基本农田保护面积和到渤海距离有着负向影响,这些因素在不同区域呈现影响程度和作用敏感性有着显著差异; 3)地理区位基础是影响国土开发强度的最直接因素,经济社会发展水平、财政金融支持力度对开发强度有着明显的推动作用,提高建设用地的节约集约利用水平能减缓开发强度过快上升,农业保护能有效地控制国土开发利用方向与强度。研究结果以期为河北省差别化管控国土开发强度、优化国土空间开发格局提供参考,并提供方法借鉴。

A CASE STUDY ON HEBEI PROVINCE: SPATIAL FEATURES,FACTORS AND MECHANISM OF LAND DEVELOPMENT INTENSITY BASED ON ESDA-GWR

Effective control of land spatial development intensity can guarantee resource intensive use and ecological environment protection. This paper, based on Heibei's 148 county domain units, uses EDA, GIS and OLS model with geographic weighted regress model to analyze land development intensity factors, and to study its mechanism. A notable positive spatial self-correlation exist in county domain with convergence. LISA local self-correlation shows "point-zone-area" structure in the whole province. GDP per capita, population density, land cial expense, net debits of financial units and slope coefficient have positive influence on land development intensity, but land fixed asset investment, land industrial GDP above designated size, permanent general farmland area and distance to Bo Sea are negative. These factors vary in influence and sensitivity with regions. Geographic locality the first key factor directly influencing land development intensity, which is also driven by economical and social development level, and financial supports. Increment of construction land intensive use can slow down the fast rise of land development intensity. Agricultural protection controls effectively the direction and intensity. This study offers reference for Hebei in variably managing and controlling land development intensity and optimizing land spatial development pattern. 