“十三五”全国油气资源勘查开采规划2016年度目标执行情况评估

2016年是中国“十三五”规划的开局之年，相关部门陆续发布了油气资源领域的纲领性文件，对全国油气资源勘查开采制定了详细的规划。对相关规划实施效果进行及时的评估、提出改善意见建议，对于维护国家油气资源安全、规范资源勘查开发意义重大。为此，从石油、常规天然气、非常规天然气等三个方面梳理了相关规划的目标，并对实施进展进行了评估。结果表明：①2016年我国石油、天然气、煤层气新增探明地质储量分别为9.14×108 t、7 265.59×108 m3和576.12×108 m3，完成各年均规划目标的91.40%、121.09%和68.59%，页岩气无新发现；②石油、天然气、煤层气和页岩气产量分别为1.997×108 t、1 231.72×108 m3、168.51×108 m3和78.82×108 m3，完成各年均规划目标的99.85%、72.45%、105.32%和26.27%，其中石油产量同比减少1545×104 t，降幅为7.19%，为2008年金融危机以来首次减产；③受低油价和投资持续下降的影响，石油、天然气产能建设相比“十二五”期间年均产能建设降幅约30%、50%，油气产业可持续发展形势严峻。结论认为：在持续低油价的形势下，仅靠现有体制和技术完成“十三五”全国油气勘查开采规划目标难度较大，迫切需要加快油气体制机制改革、强化技术创新、稳定并努力增加勘查开采投入，以稳定石油、增加天然气产能建设规模，提高国内能源资源供应保障能力。

Evaluation on the implementation of 2016 National 13th Five-Year Oil & Gas Resources Exploration and Production Planning

In 2016, the first year of the 13th Five-Year Plan, the government departments have successively issued many programmatic documents related to oil and gas resources, making a full plan in detail of national oil and gas exploration and exploitation. It is of great significance not only to the in-time evaluation of the implementation of such plans and programs so as to present helpful opinions and proposals, but to the protection of national petroleum resources security and the standardization of mineral resources exploitation. In view of this, the relevant planning and programming goals were first analyzed in three aspects of oil, conventional and unconventional natural gas and the evaluation was made respectively of the implementation results. The following findings were obtained. (1) The new proved geologic reserves of oil, gas, CBM in 2016 is 9.14×108 t, 7 265.59×108 m3 and 576.12×108 m3, respectively, which accounts for 91.40%, 121.09%, and 68.59% respectively of the overall target implementation, and no breakthrough was made in shale gas. (2) The output of oil, gas, CBM and shale gas in 2016 was 1.997×108 t, 1 231.72×108 m3, 168.51×108 m3 and 78.82×108 m3, respectively, accounting for 99.85%, 72.45%, 105.32% and 26.27% respectively of the overall target implementation. Oil output in 2016 was decreased by 7.19% (1545×104 t), which has been for the first time since the financial crisis in 2008. (3) Due to the impact of long-term low oil-prices and continuous decline of investment, oil and gas productivity in 2016 decreased by about 30% and 50% respectively in contrast with that annuallyin the 12th Five-Year Plan period. So, the oil and gas sector will face a severe situation in near future. On this basis, it is concluded that under the present situation of sustained low oil price, great difficulty will arise in achieving such goals in the 13th Five-Year Planning relying upon the existing mechanisms and technologies. In order to maintain or enhance oil and gas productivity and guarantee or improve the domestic energy supply capability, it is also suggested that oil & gas institutional mechanisms reforms be speeded up, technological innovation be focused on, and oil and gas exploration and exploitation inputs be increased.