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Valuation of underground natural gas storage: Considering stochastic volatility and seasonality of gas prices

??With the soaring demand of natural gas, especially the huge gap in consumption between summer and winter in some areas in China, the peak-shaving role of underground gas storage (UGS) is in urgent need at present in natural gas supply. Therefore, it is of great significance to evaluate the UGS at the market-oriented natural gas prices. First, based upon the present status and characteristics of UGS in China, a natural gas pricing model was first established considering mean reversion and seasonal effect, thus, the seasonal fluctuation trend of which was correspondent with the present situation in China. Then, a more accurate UGS operating policy was made by use of the conventional UGS evaluation model taking into account the impacts of factors like investment cost, operation cost, subsidy, etc. and by equalizing the gap between investment cost and subsidy at the operation stage. Finally, through numerical simulation, analysis was made on the influence of government natural gas prices and subsidy policies on the UGS investment motivation and on the impacts of both investment and operation costs on the operation and profit of UGS operators. The following proposals were put forward: to promote independent operation and separation from pipeline transportation; to encourage more diversified investors to participate in the UGS-relatedservices; and to further realize the commercial and financial functions of UGS, in other words, to promote the innovation of UGS commercial modes, or to develop more financial functions like hedging in the future.