矿业投资风险决策的贝叶斯网络方法

针对矿业投资风险决策过程中风险因素随着不断更新的信息而动态变化的特征,分析了传统方法的不足,引入贝叶斯网络分析方法,介绍了贝叶斯网络的基本概念和性质,将风险决策理论与贝叶斯网络有机的结合起来,用于矿业投资风险决策的分析.构建了基于贝叶斯网络的矿山投资风险决策模型,并通过实例证明了该方法的有效性,为矿业投资决策分析提供了一种新的思路和方法.

Application of Bayesian networks in the risk decision of mining investment

Aiming at dynamic character that the risk factors changed with the updating information in the process of assessing mining investment risk, this paper analyzed the disadvantages of the traditional methods, introduced the Bayesian networks method. The basic concept and properties of Bayesian networks was discussed. This paper also combined the risk decision theory with the Bayesian networks and used the combination in the mining investment risk decision analysis. This paper also built up the risk decision model in the field of mining investment based on Bayesian networks. At last, we used a example to demonstrate the efficient of this method, which provided a new idea for decision analyst of mining investment.