风电运行风险与备用协调优化的调度方法

风电功率的预测误差体现了风电的随机性，风电的波动性描述了风电出力在指定时空尺度上的逐点变化特性。针对风电功率预测误差和风电功率波动所需的备用容量，通过对风电的随机性、波动性分析应对，建立风电备用需求新模型。根据风电备用需求与系统运行备用之间的关联关系，定义了风电运行风险，并在此基础上构建了风电运行风险与备用协调优化的调度模型，在模型中采用惩罚的方式对因系统为风电提供的运行备用不足所造成的失负荷成本和风能浪费成本加以考虑。通过修订后的IEEE 6节点和118节点系统算例的仿真计算，验证了模型的正确性和有效性，为更大限度、更经济、更安全的利用风电功率提供了一种决策支持。

Coordinated and Optimal Dispatching Method Based on the Operation Risk of Wind Power and Reserve

The prediction error of wind power reflects its random characteristic and the fluctuation of wind power describes its step-by-step changing characteristic at a specific time and space scale. In order to determine the reserve capacity needed by the prediction error and the fluctuation of wind power, a novel reserve capacity demand model is proposed through analyzing the randomness and the fluctuation of wind power. By considering the relationship between reserve capacity demand and system operation reserve, the wind power operation risk is defined, and then a dispatch model of wind power operation risk and reserve capacity coordination and optimization is proposed. In this model, the costs of load shedding and wind energy waste due to wind power operation reserve insufficiency are taken into consideration via a penalty function. Case studies based on modified IEEE 6-bus and IEEE 118-bus system show the validity and effectiveness of the proposed model. The proposed model provides a dispatch method which utilizes the wind energy with a more economic and safer way while having higher penetration.