Distribution of Miss Distance for Pursuit-Evasion Problem

Miss distance is a critical parameter of assessing the performance for highly maneuvering targets interception (HMTI). In a realistic terminal guidance system, the control of pursuer begin{document}$ u $end{document} depends on the estimate of unknown state, thus the miss distance becomes a random variable with a prior unknown distribution. Currently, such a distribution is mainly evaluated by the method of Monte Carlo simulation. In this paper, by integrating the estimation error model of zero-effort miss distance (ZEM) obtained by our previous work, an analytic method for solving the distribution of miss distance is proposed, in which the system is presumed to use a bang-bang control strategy. By comparing with the results of Monte Carlo simulations under four different types of disturbances (maneuvers), the correctness of the proposed method is validated. Results of this paper provide a powerful tool for the design, analysis and performance evaluation of guidance system.