系统动力学方法的中长期电力需求预测

介绍将系统动力学方法运用于电力需求量的中长期预测中。该方法能够全面地考虑各种因素对中长期电力需求的影响 ,充分发挥电力专家与经济专家的经验 ,将他们的预测经验与模型化预测方法相结合 ,较好地解决了中长期电力需求受政策性和社会性因素影响而造成的预测误差问题。模型使用者可以在使用中不断总结经验提高预测精度

Medium-Long Term Electric Power Demand Forecasting Based on System Dynamics

The system dynamics are applied in the medium long term electric power demand forecasting. The method described can consider various influencing factors on electric power demand, and can bring the experience of experts in electric power and economy into full play. The forecasting combines the experience of experts with mathematical forecasting, and the forecasting errors caused by policy and society elements can be decreased. The users can accumulate experiences through using constantly this model so as to increase the forecasting precision.